COVID 19, CRISIS & CAPITALISM: THE INDONESIAN CASE

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hi Michael can you hear me can you hear

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me I can hear you great we just i was

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waiting but something was wrong

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technically no I put it at seven but the

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actual time on the poster is 7:30 all

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right okay one moment let me admit

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everyone yeah I'm right right now I am

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at the place literacy coffees welcome

01:59

everyone selamat datang bull reader I

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will request to start your video as well

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as your audio yeah sorry okay hi how are

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you I'm Muhammad so what's what happened

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we are supposed to start at 7:30 but

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Arthur at 7:00 because sometimes people

02:23

want to get a little early okay sure

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sure these into but if I'm not locked in

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they won't be able to log in but one

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minutes to 7:30 okay yeah so welcome

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everyone Slama dot-com

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this webinar will be in donation and

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English so you can feel comfortable to

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talk in both languages and I will

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translate to the speakers should you

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have any questions in Indonesian to be

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asked to Michael Roberts here and let me

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start I will start our agenda today is

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brief introduction by me a surya element

03:09

a your host followed by presentation by

03:13

michael roberts on the global situation

03:16

Covey 19 prices especially later

03:22

touching a bit on Indonesia on the

03:25

economic aspect and you'll be presenting

03:27

lots of graphs lots of data here as he

03:31

is well known for and rida many many

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graphs

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yes yes I have given the participants on

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the Facebook for Mohammed Zakir Hussain

03:44

I think the previous presentations for

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South Africa in India and you can see a

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lot of crafts there and rida at the

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moment he is in Northwestern University

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PhD student and he has written lots of

04:03

works later I will introduce him also in

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my slides and he is also an editor I

04:08

think for left book review areeda and in

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the progress and is a very prolific

04:14

writer author and I think we will enjoy

04:21

readers presentation later on especially

04:23

the political aspect of the topic and

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Solutions or propose what is to be done

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some sort of suggestions maybe and let

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me 7:30 now let me share my screen

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sharing some overview here okay can you

04:55

see my screen Michael and Rita yes okay

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so this is the slides I prepared today

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and this is our topic let's go to slide

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one yeah so copy nineteen crisis and

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capitalism the unique solution case I

05:23

have lots of affiliation lots of names

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also my full name on my idea dharmaja

05:30

Moynihan I have a surname dalla moon a

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for sure because I'm usually asked for

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first and last name so I like to put

05:39

Surya della montagne and the

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organization for myself which I'm

05:45

organizing this is under the

05:46

intellectual independent initiation

05:49

independent intellectual I am at

05:52

literacy coffee you can see here behind

05:55

me the founder of literacy coffee yes

06:00

John Fowler and later also introduce him

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and perhaps I think I will ask him to

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speak also and literacy coffee and we

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have today our presenters from a United

06:15

Kingdom and United States yeah Roberts

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is located in UK and Rita is in u.s. so

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this is literacy kefir now it's at 9:00

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but on the top left you can see the day

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view if you take a picture from outside

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so it's very beautiful it's small it's

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cozy and we have lots of murals of

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famous indonesian

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figures generation heroes including

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those including many unnamed or yet to

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be recognized as they must eschew yeah

06:54

Malaka there we have promoted area and

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you can see below also an event attended

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by many woman this is only our side view

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of the place yeah and John is some sort

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of enthusiasts of butter culture and you

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can see he has a book up there on I

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think his mother yeah so if John powers

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here Hanyu there's the website literacy

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coffee calm and let me go to the next

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one

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yeah so John's partner loose was tier II

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you can see there she also founded women

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today an organization called woman today

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which often has many events here and

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literacy coffee is funded independently

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so they are always fundraising so you

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can see the fundraise for fundraising

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website or kita bisa which is a famous

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in recent fundraising website and you

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can access their website Facebook

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Instagram and Twitter

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yeah I think John can you John

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he said initially so I will stop my

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screen share and let John speak for us

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here please John

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okay I will translate to Michael yeah so

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literacy coffee is some sort of an

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archive it's a library especially

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focusing on local Neos local culture

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local arts local music and there are

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very few such organization or

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institution here in Madonna please

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continue

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so they have collected lots of works

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they have organized more than 200 events

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since their founding in 2017 and they

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have hundreds of books since the 1800

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collect archive here

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so especially the cafe literacy coffee

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and library they have helped lots of

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students undergraduate students to

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finish or to complete their

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undergraduate thesis because they face

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difficulties they own universities to

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access sources to to do their thesis

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look at your thesis

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okay John perhaps one last minute here

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for you I'm here

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thank you very much John said that he

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wishes our discussion to be very

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fruitful very productive lots of ideas

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and perhaps solutions can come from this

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description so let me continue sharing

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my screen on the introduction here so

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Musti is there you can't see her but

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she's there okay so this is our speakers

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michael roberts who has written a very

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rigorous book yeah fight of the long

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depression Marxism and the global crisis

12:33

of capitalism basically Robert species

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focuses on the profit trade here they

12:39

define in sort of permanent decline the

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profit rate which causes evolutions in

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capitalism all over the world and rida

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he has written lots of words but I chose

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one of his work here the state a

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struggle and capitalist development in

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the nations of Korea Marxist view and he

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can be found independent that I came

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here

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edu slash Vida and of course in the

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progress so basically we will go I will

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go we will go through the common 19

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crisis capitalism and perhaps cure if

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there is any yeah so this is for a

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common nine in so I will talk with an

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anecdote within the first few months two

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of my friends have died from the disease

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another two friends currently been

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isolated and my dad at the moment is in

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the hospital specialized hospital in

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Madan 40

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copy 19 disease yeah he has been there

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for two weeks he's recovering thank God

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so let's praying for his full recovery

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which is

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hope to be another few weeks and so I I

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am several friends met the mayor of

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Madonna two weeks ago and he said that

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the cost for a patient being admitted or

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being treated at the hospital is about

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70 million rupiah from the start until

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the end until until be when the patient

14:23

is deemed to be cured but just now I

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heard an information from a source from

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the governor yeah this now up to 240

14:32

million rupiah so this is about perhaps

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six seven thousand or five thousand to

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twenty thousand dollars and it's very

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funny in Indonesia that we are so called

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entering the new normal at the age or

14:54

the year of new normal but in my town in

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fact it has never been meaning we have

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never experienced something other than

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the ordinary so we continue to go out

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and even the minister to ministers

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recently came to Maidan and they said

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that seems that madam has returned to

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normality whereas as we know in Milan

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that the large-scale social distancing

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has never been properly monitored so

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people are free to go out and interact

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as before the disease started and last

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but not least right now we are

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experiencing what we call some sort of

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local and global capitalism yeah in a

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sense that right now since the loss of

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institutions are commercializing the

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disease by conducting rapid tests and

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some for example some airlines even they

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offer discounted repeat test and at the

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hospital the price for the rapid test is

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about $30 which is well the d-10 a few

16:24

thousand rupiah but if you go to another

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region by airline if you go to the

16:30

airport they offer rapid test discount

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or every test 90 thousand so you wonder

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about the effectiveness and my brother's

16:38

recently because of my dad

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they were the ones who brought my dad to

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the hospital so he had to undergo a PCR

16:45

a swab test here and it cost about two

16:48

million rupiah so this is a very

16:51

expensive disease and lots of problems

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caused by the disease in terms of how it

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is being capitalized seems to be

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capitalized by Indonesian institutions

17:02

and organizations including the

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government's yeah and so you have PDP is

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an Indonesian term for patient under

17:14

observation here passing the eponymous

17:17

on ODP is around element power and

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people who are being asked isolate

17:22

themselves and OTG is around contrada

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jolla people without symptoms these are

17:27

these are this is the most dangerous

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because they exhibit no symptom

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therefore they are free to move around

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and they're the ones who spread the

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disease to those who system are weak so

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far 74,000 people confirmed to suffer

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from the of it 19 disease in indonesia

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about 35,000 719 people have recovered

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and sadly 3535 people have died so we

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have a crisis in local government budget

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all over Indonesia especially in our

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city because the body has been much

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reduced because local tax receive has

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been much reduced and lots of regions in

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Indonesia they must conduct regular

18:11

election and they have no funding for

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this because there even if they have

18:16

funding they must increase funding

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because it is planned there all the

18:20

election officers should wear

18:22

years the boots are being redesigned

18:26

accomodate social distancing procedures

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no sorry physical distance across videos

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and therefore a budget for

18:35

infrastructure innovation infrastructure

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is very bad so you have to have

18:41

maintenance budget every year to

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maintain the infrastructure now they are

18:47

not being maintained because the body

18:48

has been redirected to tackle the copy

18:51

19 crisis so we can see in our city for

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example loss more flooding and crumbling

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roads broken roads here and everywhere

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actually

19:04

SBA is in donation for last scale social

19:07

restriction so this has ended

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effectively the police police of

19:15

Indonesia stated that this has ended so

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people are free to mix around to go out

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but it is not effective even given the

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social restriction period it was more

19:26

effective and now we can see the number

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of people has skyrocketed who suffers or

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who contracts disease unemployment of

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course increase by a lot this is the

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largest or the most number of projection

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by Lippe up to 25 million people will be

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unemployed by the end of 2020 I have

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resources if you want I can send it to

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you later

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so lots of conflicts on the streets one

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darling not all the region Regency

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people walk the roads the local citizens

20:03

their local people they block the roads

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because they complain that they don't

20:06

receive assistance as much as they

20:09

should and also in Java lots of similar

20:14

cases demonstrations regarding the

20:17

financial systems and for assistance and

20:22

direct stimulus to the people have been

20:25

recommended by economies intellectuals

20:28

elites of all ideologies but the

20:32

government seems not

20:34

here all these recommendations even the

20:37

mainstream the so-called new classical

20:40

or neo liberal intellectuals or

20:43

economies they have recommended direct

20:45

stimulus here to the people but these

20:47

suggestions have been unheeded so far

20:50

let me meet these people here alright

20:58

and now to the capitalism aspect of our

21:05

topic so I would like to begin by saying

21:08

that voting this around 1600 some of the

21:10

richest parts of the world were in East

21:12

China Indonesia India and Japan this is

21:18

by Roger band's Annenberg the struggle

21:21

for power in critical Muslim that spread

21:26

here he has written on the history of

21:28

capitalism in Indonesia recently is only

21:32

la no fee the Netherlands and the

21:34

colonisation of inner Asia 8 June 2020

21:37

and a few days ago

21:39

or perhaps I want me to go about

21:43

bootyman - near the dark history of

21:46

slavery and racism Indonesia during the

21:48

Dutch or a new period so historical

21:52

materialism in a sense that path

21:55

dependence here

21:56

what Indonesia today is decided or

21:58

dependent on its previous path even we

22:02

must understand malicious history

22:05

especially in materially to understand

22:08

what is our real problem and how to

22:13

solve it yeah

22:19

so here this is from elec golden delayed

22:23

elect worden lots of foreign experts

22:27

bday historians or economies they

22:31

described in Alicia not I think not

22:34

objectively

22:35

for example Gordon criticized in his

22:37

review of this book an economic history

22:40

of Indonesia 1800 to 2010 by famous

22:42

Dutch historians economists comienza en

22:45

route and went under and historian Dan

22:48

Mars so he said that in his review this

22:51

authors say that the not the 1945 1965

22:55

extinction at the lost decades so Gordon

22:58

delayed electrode and criticized to whom

23:00

where or this day gets lost and Gordon

23:05

suggested that the loss during that

23:07

period revolution a period was

23:09

imperialism's and similar book here the

23:14

Indonesian economy in the 19th century

23:17

and 20th centuries history of missed

23:19

opportunities my in both here so miss

23:23

opportunities why who missed these

23:26

opportunities so we must find other

23:29

books fortunately there are many other

23:31

books on Indonesian economic history

23:34

which can enlighten us by Thomas Lin

23:38

black by Howard dick I think by even it

23:41

can we we can get the facts from those

23:47

books even though perhaps interpretation

23:49

may not be to our liking yeah and Gordon

23:53

computer by saying that this book has

23:57

neglected any real engagement with

23:58

Marcion new Marxian and despondency

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theories and it's merely a contribution

24:03

to what is the narrative research

24:05

program that characterizes modern

24:07

neoclassical economics so we really

24:10

really need an engagement here in the

24:12

nation especially because of our history

24:14

with Marcion a new Marcion and system

24:19

here is dependency theorists to be able

24:21

to diagnose in delicious problems and to

24:25

offer useful solutions here here on the

24:30

right side go

24:32

estimates of the amount of surplus

24:36

extract of Malaysia during the colonial

24:38

period yeah their fight works there and

24:41

I think this is yeah I think this is my

24:46

last slide yeah in turn so Andy he's her

24:49

bow barely changed the new economy

24:51

imperialism so this is this book has

24:54

worn worn many Lords here only the one

24:59

minister there so this will examine the

25:01

exploitation of labour and class in the

25:03

global south using Indonesia as a case

25:06

study here using Indonesian suppliers

25:08

and it is very interesting because this

25:11

book examined concrete processes through

25:14

which multinational corporations located

25:17

primarily in the global North capture

25:18

value from the global South yeah

25:20

how they enforce economical and flexible

25:23

production including labor management

25:24

methods aim to reassert the Imperial

25:27

dominance north while continue the

25:29

dependency of the global South and this

25:34

power must be broken if the global

25:36

working class if the in nation working

25:39

class is to liberate ourselves here and

25:42

this yield book is very useful because

25:44

it puts labor and class back at the

25:46

center of understanding of the world

25:48

capitalist system especially now in

25:51

Indonesia we have the Omnibus laws you

25:54

know which makes it easier for

25:56

investments for their investments

25:58

foreign capital to enter Indonesia and

26:01

lots of protests but it seems that the

26:05

government and the the executive branch

26:08

and the legislative branch of the nation

26:10

government's continues to power to to to

26:13

force the law to be issued to be

26:18

released within a hundred days so within

26:21

one or two months you can expect this

26:22

law to be ratified by the so this is

26:26

very worried so I hope with all this

26:29

analysis later even if we do not come up

26:33

with solutions we can see some solutions

26:35

or we can imagine at least what are the

26:39

real problem we can imagine at least the

26:41

solutions barrier problems facing us now

26:45

thank you very much

26:46

I will ask the floor or the webinar to

26:53

microrobots please well thank you Surya

27:02

for an opening a account of the general

27:06

issues involved in what's happened in

27:09

Indonesia for that matter what's

27:11

happened in the global South and clearly

27:14

there's quite a lot of literature that

27:16

you've collected and other people have

27:18

which can explain a lot of the history

27:21

of not only Indonesian capitalism and

27:26

its its suppression by global

27:31

imperialism but also the rest of the

27:33

world as well what I want to do in my

27:36

contribution to this very very useful

27:39

discussion it's not often you get an

27:41

opportunity to discuss with people on

27:43

the ground in various parts of the world

27:45

but particularly Indonesia in this case

27:47

about what's going on and how that's

27:50

affecting a major economy because

27:52

Indonesia has 270 million people I think

27:57

to the latest figures and it's a member

27:59

of the g20 which is the club of the top

28:03

19 economies that was xx since the

28:06

European Union that meets on occasion to

28:10

discuss world affairs and in particular

28:13

discuss the strategy for International

28:16

capitals and Indonesia

28:17

is part of that one of the if you like

28:20

major

28:43

anyway so what I want to talk about is

28:47

what's happening in global capitalism

28:49

under the Code vid how that's affecting

28:52

Indonesian capitalism and the economy

28:55

there and the people in it and then

28:57

perhaps with Mohammed's discussion

29:00

coming through later we'll have a much

29:02

more comprehensive picture on the issues

29:05

that we need to discuss so like Fourier

29:10

I'm going to try and share as free

29:11

without any mistakes I hope this works

29:13

and the coast needs to allow me to share

29:17

the screen on plots off at the moment

29:19

Surya can you release that now I'm still

29:30

disabled from my screen Surya you need

29:35

to release the screen to everybody yeah

29:44

that's it can you know okay yeah we're

29:51

fine you should be able to see it now

30:06

right can you see that yeah okay so let

30:12

me start by talking about the current

30:14

situation and we know in the world there

30:16

has been a major lockdown of nearly all

30:19

the economies in the world as a result

30:21

of the spread of the Kovach 19 virus and

30:24

the inability of health systems around

30:26

the world to cope with it and to avoid

30:29

massive increase in deaths and serious

30:32

illness for a load petite people

30:35

particularly old people people already

30:37

have medical problems with sweets so

30:39

this is false governments with

30:41

inadequate health systems to introduce

30:44

full or partial lock downs and as of

30:46

last month something like 2.7 million

30:49

workers were affected by a fall or a

30:50

coterie lock down 81 percent of the

30:54

world's 3.3 billion workers were

30:56

affected by that even in countries where

30:59

on the whole infection rates have been

31:01

low and death rates even low this

31:06

lockdown unprecedented unparalleled we

31:09

haven't seen anything like this

31:11

originally it was thought it was going

31:12

to be a contraction of about 3 to 5

31:14

percent in global GDP the latest

31:17

estimates by the IMF the OEC and the

31:20

World Bank suggest it's going to be even

31:22

higher than that main work and certainly

31:25

worse than the Great Recession of 2008 9

31:28

in the lockdowns output in most

31:32

economies according to the OSC will fall

31:34

by 25 percent this year and up to

31:38

one-third in some of the sectors in the

31:40

major economies I'll show you later the

31:44

latest estimates for 2020 whether

31:46

they're truly staggering in the

31:48

reduction in GDP by the end of the year

31:52

and for each month one containment which

31:54

has been on average about three months

31:56

there's going to be a loss of two

31:58

percentage points in annual GDP the

32:02

short-term collapse in this output

32:04

according to one American economists is

32:08

equivalent and of passing anything we've

32:11

seen in the last 150 years that also

32:15

applies in so far as we can see later on

32:18

to the figures

32:20

and according to the IMF chief

32:22

crystallinity over we now protected over

32:26

170 countries will experience negative

32:28

per capita income growth that means that

32:31

the income per person in the country

32:33

will fall during 2020 in over 170

32:37

countries and that includes Indonesia as

32:40

and one of the clear things that comes

32:43

to me from this reading and following

32:47

marks is he makes a very simple point

32:50

that value what's produced and what

32:53

people can create in order to improve

32:55

their living and also the profits of

32:58

capitalism depends primarily on people

33:01

going to work there is no other way in

33:03

which you can produce value and as mark

33:06

says every child knows if a nation

33:08

ceases to work even if it's not per year

33:10

but even for just a few months months or

33:13

weeks would perish and that's certainly

33:15

been proven by this

33:17

Kovach prices and the lockdown that's

33:20

taken place if there's one thing we've

33:23

learned from Cogan immediately is that

33:25

it's up to two human beings and

33:27

particularly working people who set the

33:29

tone for improvements in livingstone and

33:31

conditions and social needs in around

33:34

the world it's not to to the people who

33:37

appropriate that value are distributed

33:40

amongst themselves and live off it only

33:43

labor creates value and we've seen it

33:46

the point I want to make is that this

33:49

pandemic was not a bolt out of the blue

33:52

it was not like an asteroid hitting the

33:55

earth it couldn't have been expected it

33:58

pandemics have been increasing for the

34:00

last 25 30 years as new viruses which

34:04

haven't come into the contact with human

34:07

beings have started to affect this has

34:10

come about through the industrialization

34:12

of most of the world

34:14

logging oil exploration industrial

34:18

farming all those things many of which

34:20

you experience in Indonesia has led to

34:23

the more remote parts of the world and

34:26

where there are wild animals have been

34:27

keeping these pathogens in their bodies

34:29

for thousands of years have now become

34:32

closer to human

34:33

Conte and it seems through a process of

34:36

jumping from wild animals into a

34:39

domesticated animals industrial

34:41

production and farming and then into

34:43

food markets that these pan these

34:46

pathogens have began to enter human

34:48

bodies have been a series this is just

34:51

the latest one and there are probably

34:52

more to come the United Nations have

34:55

will at least pandemics for coming but

34:57

most countries and governments ignored

34:59

that thought they can carry on just as

35:02

before I didn't need to prepare for such

35:04

pandemics and so they were hit hard when

35:07

it did did it happen but the other

35:09

reason we have to remember why there has

35:12

been such a Sun is not just the pandemic

35:14

and the virus but also the fact that on

35:18

the whole world economy major economies

35:21

in the world were slowing down over this

35:23

longest period we've seen since the

35:26

Great Recession of 2009 in a 10-year

35:28

period of expansion of the longest

35:31

expansion on record but the weakest

35:33

expansion it's been a very low growth

35:35

rate very no investment rate very low

35:38

productivity very low wage increases on

35:41

the whole internationally another is and

35:43

yet just as we got to 2019 growth was

35:46

staying down in most of the major

35:48

economies at least of the global North

35:51

to under 2% heading towards one percent

35:54

well Europe was virtually in recession

35:57

Japan was in a slump and even the

35:59

emerging economies like Indonesia and

36:02

others were slowing down as well as the

36:05

figures will show in a minute so we were

36:07

already entering probably a new economic

36:09

slump and the pandemic and the lockdowns

36:12

have just exhilarated and been

36:14

concentrated and extended that process

36:16

not only in depth but also in BRIC

36:19

further over virtually the whole world

36:22

for the first time has been involved in

36:24

a slump and we can see here in this

36:26

figure there's been the global economy

36:30

has just dropped off a cliff edge both

36:33

the advanced economies have gone

36:35

negative and for the first time since

36:38

the 1960s emerging economies have gone

36:41

negative in 2020 here's a graph by the

36:45

OECD of each

36:47

country in their expensive declining

36:49

growth you can see on the left hand side

36:51

something like 10 to 12 percent of scale

36:54

is missing but it's around 10 to 12

36:56

percent from Spain France Italy the UK

36:59

and then if you work down the list you

37:01

will find all the other countries all in

37:04

a negative area including India down the

37:06

bottom there for the very first time and

37:08

as we'll see also and the part of the

37:13

reason it's affected not just the

37:15

advanced capitalist economies we'll all

37:17

as he did in the Great Recession 2008 9

37:20

it's also this time we seen a massive

37:22

collapse in trade

37:23

I mean commodity prices already

37:25

beginning before the Kovan but now

37:29

extended to a huge drop in trade and

37:32

commodity prices and and for countries

37:37

like Indonesia for countries like most

37:41

of the commodity country resource based

37:43

countries in Latin America then this is

37:46

serious this means that even if the code

37:49

is not expensive in their own country it

37:52

means they can sell them or else because

37:54

products are prices of collapsed rain

37:56

has collapsed so this is just a

37:59

contagion effect across the world and

38:01

here for the first time we get an

38:03

estimate that emerging markets GDP

38:05

growth will be negative in 2020 the

38:07

first time as I say

38:08

since certainly since the early 1960s if

38:12

not before since reliable records began

38:13

we don't really have records for

38:15

so-called emerging markets until the

38:19

last 60 or 70 years and we can see that

38:22

for the first time they are entering a

38:24

negative period and by the way that

38:26

developing economy slump includes China

38:29

India the two biggest global South

38:33

economies which in the Great Recession

38:35

certainly in the case of China remained

38:38

positive in their growth rates during

38:40

the period of the Great Recession and

38:42

India more or less two now both of those

38:45

have been forced into a fall in GDP in

38:49

2020 and yet the Kovach pandemic is not

38:54

over he's the latest figures I think

38:56

from yesterday which show that daily new

38:59

cases on

39:00

they moving average the left-hand chart

39:01

are over 200,000 a day now on average

39:06

which is indication that the infection

39:08

continues to spread particularly in

39:11

countries where there's no real attempt

39:12

now to try and control contain it like

39:16

the United States but also spreading to

39:19

other countries which up to now hasn't

39:21

had it before South Africa India Brazil

39:24

Latin America in general and on the

39:27

right hand side you can see the daily

39:29

deaths still remain above 5,000 a day on

39:32

average yes they've come down a little

39:34

bit but if you look closely you can see

39:36

there isn't really much of a fall in the

39:39

death rate as it expands across the

39:41

world so we're seeing deaths per day

39:43

remaining very high because of the

39:46

increasing number of cases figures we

39:51

can see this the same thing that the

39:53

pack endemic is writing in daily new

39:57

cases cases per day now up close to is

40:02

that two thousands a day some of the

40:05

latest figures still rising cause deaths

40:08

aren't very high we know that the reason

40:11

for this is probably two reasons one it

40:15

seems that anybody under the age of 50

40:17

around 40 doesn't who doesn't have any

40:20

medical problem existing already is

40:22

unlikely to be severely affected by

40:25

being infected with the Kovach 19 virus

40:29

and all those who have some medical

40:31

problem or are pension and old like

40:34

myself are in serious risk of getting

40:37

severely ill being hospitalized and

40:40

possibly dying so while death while the

40:43

cases spreads areas where the population

40:46

is relatively younger then death daily

40:49

deaths appear to be not rising at the

40:51

same ratio so far but of course many

40:54

countries that have lots of young people

40:57

also had lots of unhealthy people

41:00

because of the conditions under which

41:01

they live so there's a real danger when

41:04

the death rate could start to rise if

41:07

the pandemic continues to spread in

41:10

Wales so point being made here is that

41:12

the global pan

41:14

as of July 2020 having started in

41:18

January is not over maybe under

41:22

controlling countries most countries in

41:24

Europe but it's still there in the case

41:26

of the United States Latin America it's

41:28

still increasing sharply and in Asia

41:30

there's also some signs that pick up in

41:33

those countries which are able to

41:34

control here is the latest death per

41:37

million of kovin 19 you can see just

41:42

about yellow block there that's the

41:44

deaths per million in the US and the UK

41:47

400 deaths per million of the population

41:50

the u.s. has 350 million or so so you

41:54

can add that up to get your total number

41:56

of deaths but 408 deaths per million UK

41:59

is at 657 deaths per million the

42:03

second-highest so Asian death rates per

42:07

million are much much lower but you can

42:10

see if you want to take it within the

42:11

area of the Asian region that Indonesia

42:14

is relatively high compared to other

42:16

countries like Japan Korea Thailand

42:19

Taiwan and Vietnam and China of course

42:22

vote when pandemic started is actually

42:25

very countries like India are not really

42:30

controlling the pandemic so this per

42:33

million are continuing to rise there as

42:35

patients rights and it looks as though

42:37

Indonesia may be in the same boat as the

42:40

Philippines and this is the big point

42:43

about the economic this lockdown is just

42:46

certain to drive up poverty levels

42:49

around the world particularly in the

42:51

global south there possibly

42:54

according to the World Bank something

42:57

like half a million people could be

42:58

driven back below the World Bank's

43:02

poverty line as a result of the

43:04

lockdowns of the economic collapse the

43:07

World Bank's poverty lines by the way of

43:09

$1 90 per day is pathetically low

43:12

nobody impossibly Tribune on that except

43:15

staff a more realistic figure of $5 50

43:19

per person for a day would suggest that

43:23

even more people could be driven into

43:26

policy as a result

43:27

of the 20% collapse in the incomes of

43:32

the poorest people in East Asia has half

43:34

of that half billion and South Asia

43:37

another hundred and twenty eight billion

43:40

according to these figures that's an

43:42

indication well seriously there's four

43:45

people's at home industry driven with

43:49

work closing down I'm already close to

43:51

the poverty line

43:53

an Indian either is not a rich country

43:56

if you look at the GDP figures per

43:59

person here ranked by the IMF and the

44:03

World Bank you can see that in Southeast

44:06

Asia Indonesia has about thirty fourteen

44:09

thousand dollars per person income or

44:13

national income that's the income per

44:15

capita fourteen thousand dollars way

44:18

less than Thailand Malaysia and only

44:22

somewhat above the Philippines and other

44:25

countries there and in China for example

44:28

with one and a half billion people on

44:30

for three billion people is way way

44:33

better off per person so this Indonesia

44:37

is still struggling to provide the basic

44:41

needs of its 270 million people and the

44:45

other ones working in that environment

44:46

and now we have the code it's not even

44:49

really hard it's estimated that 60% of

44:53

the world's employed population are in

44:55

the informal economy so that means they

44:57

don't have salaries or wages coming

45:02

directly from employers the world

45:07

recorded its little done by cashing on a

45:09

casual employment basis or a temporary

45:12

basis or limiting contracts a cash

45:15

economy which puts means there is no

45:17

backup in terms of sick pain welfare

45:20

benefits or any support if you lose your

45:23

job or you lose your livelihood in your

45:25

business and all the countries in

45:28

selected Beijing countries have this

45:30

very high level of informal sector

45:32

including Indonesia something like two

45:34

thirds of Indonesian workers are in the

45:38

informal sector which is a state

45:41

- because it means that they are very

45:44

very vulnerable to this collapse in

45:46

economic prosperity in addition

45:51

Indonesia is one of the most unequal

45:53

societies if you look at the chart on

45:57

the left-hand side you can see that

45:59

there are some countries where the

46:00

richest 1% higher which is one cent in

46:04

Russia have 75 percent of all the wealth

46:07

personal wealth in that economy India

46:11

the richest 1% have 58 percent but

46:14

Indonesia is also very high nearly half

46:17

of the personal wealth in Indonesia is

46:21

held by the top 1% and if you look on

46:23

the right-hand side you can see the top

46:26

10% of the Gini index which is the

46:28

measure of inequality and Indonesia in

46:31

been looking at across Southeast Asia is

46:34

nearly as high as Thailand in this level

46:38

of wealth inequality were what people

46:42

have as their positions whether it's

46:44

home whether it's some articles that car

46:49

and so on or even a very unlikely some

46:53

savings in the bank or stocks and shares

46:56

the result is of course all that wealth

46:58

is concentrated in a very very small

47:01

number of people so the vast majority of

47:03

people have been easier and in other

47:05

countries own little or nothing and a

47:08

very very small number of people

47:09

virtually everything here is the

47:13

increment that's the inequality of

47:15

income in Indonesia with two lines

47:19

showing where the Asian financial crisis

47:21

was in one through nine eight and then

47:23

the global financial crash of 2008 9 and

47:26

you can see the inequality ratio which

47:30

is the GED ratio had been increasing in

47:33

Indonesia

47:34

since the beginning of this century and

47:37

reached the height in the 2015 period

47:39

it's come down a little bit since then

47:41

but it still really had record highs in

47:45

terms of inequality compared to where

47:48

Indonesia was even back in the nineteen

47:50

from the terrible days of the nineteen

47:53

seventies so

47:54

equality wealth inequality of income

47:57

everybody living on the margin with

48:00

informal employment this is the

48:02

situation for the vast majority of

48:04

working people in Indonesia as this

48:07

covent pandemic and these global slum

48:09

kids and one of the issues here is that

48:12

if you have an informal economy

48:14

hardly anybody pays any taxes because

48:16

everything is cash nothing goes through

48:19

to be recorded to be taxed but even more

48:22

important basically the Indonesian

48:25

government does not tax the rich they

48:27

hold most of the wealth they hold most

48:30

of the income but they're not really

48:32

taxed the tax to GDP ratio is the lowest

48:36

in much of the major Asian economies

48:40

around it's not very high even in India

48:43

and China at 16 or 20 percent tax to GDP

48:47

ratio ratios by the way Europe is

48:52

anything between 25 and 40 percent but

48:55

the ratios in these countries is well

48:58

below a 20% in case of Indonesia

49:00

it was hardly above 10 percent so that

49:02

the government has no money to spend to

49:04

improve conditions for the common good

49:06

he was going to use use the money for

49:09

because it doesn't get much tax out of

49:12

very rich mainly and because everybody

49:15

else struggles to make a living

49:16

tries to avoid paying taxes best they

49:18

can so here we are right now in the

49:22

Kovan into 2020 you can see the last GDP

49:26

growth figures we have for Indonesia

49:27

isn't it sliding fast it's to the

49:29

positive but I can assure you by the

49:31

time we get the figures for the second

49:34

quarter of this year which ended in June

49:36

just a couple of weeks ago then we'll

49:39

see a negative growth rate in Indonesia

49:41

like elsewhere and then we'll see where

49:43

they can struggle to turn that around

49:45

given the world trade and commodity

49:48

prices continue to flounder and

49:49

Indonesia's basic support for growth

49:55

will not be there to continue with trade

49:58

world trade economic activity that's the

50:01

measuring of activity coming parado by

50:04

indonesian manufacturers and service

50:07

sector has just

50:08

two tracks it's a little bit of a

50:10

recovery month or so but you can see

50:12

it's well well below normal though

50:14

anything above 50 means some sort of

50:17

growth activity anything below 15 you

50:21

listen mix means a serious contraction

50:23

and the further down you are the faster

50:26

isn't crack as long as you if you're

50:28

still under 50 and the economy is still

50:30

contracting so even though that food

50:33

gets jumped a little bit it is still

50:34

means that the in degrees the economy is

50:36

coming down and we will see in the

50:39

second quarter the results with that and

50:41

of course Indonesian households have

50:43

stopped spending for two reasons they

50:45

haven't got any money because they're

50:47

not working large numbers of them I

50:49

think Sharia says something like 25%

50:51

unemployment but also I'm afraid to

50:56

spend money on things that otherwise we

50:59

put them at risk of getting infection

51:01

when they go out traveling whether it's

51:03

meeting other people at consults

51:05

consumer spending just like in many

51:07

other countries has collapsed at the

51:09

issues but if that doesn't come back and

51:12

manufacturing doesn't back and exports

51:15

don't come back then you're in for a

51:17

serious damage to the you come and this

51:20

is a commodity based economy here's a

51:22

little graph which shows you in the top

51:24

right hand corner that 23 percent of

51:27

India's GDP comes from mineral fuels

51:30

oils distillation products you know

51:33

better than me

51:34

what that means the sort of industry

51:37

that Indonesia has as its base to create

51:40

value but also another nevins income

51:43

through the various agricultural base

51:45

basic products oils and so on which had

51:48

come from land and which are exploited

51:50

and then you can see also top right hand

51:53

corner

51:54

various minerals and so on Saudi that

51:57

all that together you're getting

51:58

something like 40 to 45 percent of the

52:01

economy depends on basic fuel soils

52:05

agricultural and oil products and the

52:08

prices of all of those have taken a huge

52:10

plummet in the last six months and

52:13

unless they return in Indonesia's

52:16

reasonable growth rate which is had to

52:19

try and match this fast-growing

52:21

population of free

52:22

five percent a year over the last ten

52:24

years is in serious jeopardy not just

52:26

this year but in future years and the

52:30

problem is that although in Indonesia

52:33

depends on the capitalist sector to get

52:36

its volume up by the exploitation of

52:39

workers involved in that that hapless

52:41

sector is really not making much of a

52:43

return the multinationals and Indonesia

52:47

are increasingly finding it difficult to

52:49

get a decent profit as they expand the

52:53

level of machinery plant equipment they

52:56

apply relative to labor lot of the

53:00

industries that the multinationals have

53:02

invested in entities who don't require

53:05

because their oil refineries and other

53:08

products on where they do they don't

53:11

return the sort of return expected

53:13

that's specifically the case since the

53:16

Asian financial crisis that we can see

53:18

back before that

53:20

going way back this is if you like the

53:23

rate of profit for Indonesian capital in

53:25

the economy as a whole was averaging

53:27

around about 20 percent compared to the

53:31

investments after the invasion Asian

53:34

financial crash there was a huge job and

53:36

there hasn't really been any recovery

53:38

that means is extremely difficult for

53:42

Indonesian capital to recover from this

53:44

slump on its own it requires a massive

53:47

bailout or it requires actually the

53:50

removal of Indonesian capital and its

53:52

replacement by government and state

53:55

investment to boost the economy

53:57

if Indonesia continues to rely on

54:00

incentives through Indonesian capital

54:02

and the multinationals to try them get

54:04

them out of the slump because the

54:05

profitability is so low they will not

54:08

get the responding investment that they

54:09

require to boost growth boost

54:12

productivity and create new jobs at

54:15

reasonable rates for not just on the

54:17

informal economy they will stand alone

54:19

and the same way they have done for the

54:21

last for 25 years

54:23

corporate profitability from according

54:26

to the IMF staff estimates you can see

54:28

confirms the previous graph you can

54:30

sleep slipping from eighty percent also

54:33

called its neonate from 2011 down

54:36

recovery now with 20 20 20 19 it fell

54:39

2024 more we have not City continues to

54:43

decline we keep very difficult to see

54:45

much improvement we can expect in

54:48

capitalist production in Deniz and the

54:52

other issue is when if the prices of

54:55

your exports are collapsing but you

54:57

still have to pay that debt that you've

55:01

built up previously with through

55:03

investment or through corporations

55:06

bringing in investment or government

55:11

borrowing money or companies borrowing

55:12

money from international banks in order

55:14

to grow then private external debt has

55:17

increased across the board in various

55:19

sectors on the left-hand graph there

55:21

over the last 10 to 15 years since the

55:23

Great Recession and that debt is already

55:26

dollars if the group here has been

55:28

collapsing which it has because of

55:30

commodity prices then that debt is very

55:32

much more difficult to pay and they can

55:34

see on the right hand scale you know MF

55:36

can see an increase in them problem

55:39

opens companies in even before we get to

55:42

the code we're starting to have

55:44

difficulty in Indonesia in meeting their

55:46

debts despite low interest rates because

55:48

everything is measured in dollars and if

55:51

they can't pay back their loans with

55:52

dollars then they're in danger of

55:55

defaulting on their debt or not paying

55:57

at the time good impression on the banks

55:59

and now with a fall in production trade

56:03

and commodity prices that red line on

56:07

the right-hand scale is going to shoot

56:08

up and the overall bars on the left hand

56:12

sail are also going to shoot up

56:14

increasing the pressure and difficulty

56:16

of meeting fits what help are they

56:19

getting the IMF may be able to offer the

56:21

money in the crisis but it'll be limited

56:23

and that will put them probably under

56:25

pressure to meet the terms of the IMF

56:28

which will require paying that back over

56:30

time so it puts tremendous pressure on

56:32

the Indonesian national economy if it's

56:35

placed in the position where it has to

56:36

go into an IMF program in order to try

56:39

and meet the external debt figures we

56:41

did see here and the void too much rise

56:43

in problem loans can you can the

56:47

government spend money to boost the

56:50

economy there's a capitalist sector one

56:52

if you look down this list they've been

56:54

some huge increases in fiscal spending

56:57

by many European and global North

57:00

countries in trying to bail out both

57:02

companies and workers to some extent and

57:06

try and keep the economy going to look

57:09

if you look on the right-hand side you

57:11

can see it's mainly global South or

57:14

emerging economies that means that they

57:16

just don't have the funds to spend in

57:19

order to compensate for the loss of jobs

57:22

lock down the closure of production

57:25

Indonesia's only spending guns been 2.6

57:29

percent of GDP and you can compare that

57:31

to say the u.s. is 8 percent of Hong

57:35

Kong at 10 percent Indonesia is not

57:38

under musician to make this sort of

57:39

spending that would get them out through

57:42

government invest in your government

57:43

spending they just don't have the

57:45

resources and the international

57:47

organization through the IMF World Bank

57:49

and so on or the Asian Development Bank

57:51

cannot provide anything like extra--

57:55

helped to achieve that that applies not

57:57

just to Indonesia but also to most of

58:00

Southeast Asia and and as I said the

58:06

capitalist system overall was already

58:08

indifferent and I think just finished

58:11

old mr. Surya every US too long but to

58:15

make the point that this Kovach pandemic

58:19

has driven the world economy through an

58:21

unparalleled slump but already the world

58:25

economy was slowing down already the

58:27

profitability of the major sectors of

58:29

the capitalist Burghley economy was at

58:32

very low notes we were in a long

58:34

depressed rate of profit and growth and

58:37

production for the major economies

58:39

before the Cova came and that means

58:42

unless there's an matic increase in the

58:44

profitability of the captain is sector

58:46

internationally it'll be a real struggle

58:48

to get out of this slump it will make it

58:52

very very much more difficult to achieve

58:54

or return to any sort anything like what

58:57

my normal in Indonesia or anywhere else

59:00

not normal for the majority of the

59:02

popular

59:03

and even normal for catalyst friends

59:07

corporate profits globally were flat or

59:10

dead or zero or falling before the codes

59:13

been hit

59:14

this is a measure of all the major

59:16

economies corporate profits governance

59:20

of course economies and you can see

59:23

there or are they were in difficulty

59:25

before that so and we're expecting now

59:28

interesting Vegas fees that global

59:30

corporate profits that's the profits

59:32

that big corporations make around in the

59:34

major economies are gonna fall by

59:36

something like twenty five second so you

59:38

can see but that black line is going to

59:41

go further

59:41

well down to to the bottom below minus

59:44

twenty there in this coming year that's

59:47

going to be very difficult to recover

59:49

from and what it means is you get a

59:51

permanent loss of output

59:53

here's the IMF's estimate if you see

59:56

that black line running from 2018 for

59:59

lift right that was the sort of trend

60:01

growth rate but the global economy was

60:04

achieving before the Kovach hit and then

60:06

we get this the slant as a result of it

60:09

according to IMF it drops down from the

60:13

100 point in 2019 to 94 95 I think

60:18

that's before now and then they're

60:20

supposedly is going to be recovering but

60:22

it may not be a recovery which is

60:24

achieved for several years so will that

60:26

blue shadow there something like 12

60:29

trillion dollars which is equivalent to

60:31

something like 30 percent forty percent

60:33

of world GDP over that period of time is

60:37

lost forever you can't get that back

60:39

that's not returning to the previous

60:41

growth rate II think that's possible in

60:43

two or three years time still means that

60:46

all those jobs incomes products

60:50

resources have been lost to the world

60:53

during the period of the slump and its

60:55

recovery that's what slumps do people

60:57

forget those things then you come out of

60:59

it you carry on reform yes but the slump

61:02

means it's V or L or whatever that means

61:06

that cumulative output loss is not river

61:09

and it's not going to be a thing here is

61:15

the estimates made

61:16

be with things go well there maybe by

61:20

the end of 2020 for you'll be silly

61:22

recovering to some extent but if you

61:24

have a double hit

61:25

in fact you could go with a nude virus

61:28

out wave lockdown to continue longer

61:32

interim financial crisis as the result

61:34

in the slump

61:35

then there will be no return to this

61:38

previous trend growth which as I did

61:41

earlier for some of the lowest growth

61:43

rates we've seen since records began in

61:46

the last 20 50 or 60 years so a growth

61:50

rate we're back in the nineteen sixties

61:53

and seventies economies could grow

61:55

global economy is growing at 5% in the

61:58

nineteen ninety five or six percent in

62:01

the two thousand three or four percent

62:03

after the global financial crash where

62:07

the economy was growing at about two to

62:09

three percent now we're not going to see

62:11

that trend growth rate and more we're

62:14

going to be in a position where it's

62:16

basically way lower than any as it were

62:19

a very low investment rate this is the

62:23

investment rate for all the major OECD

62:26

economies and that shows it how much

62:28

it's gonna fall in first was already

62:30

very low anyway and now this code would

62:33

start we're going to drive hapless

62:35

investment all of us down to zero so

62:37

there'll be no improvement no recovery

62:40

which will be recognizable to the

62:42

majority owners in order to develop

62:45

resources and improve social needs even

62:48

if that was fairly shared which is

62:50

course it isn't

62:51

and yet the operations of the big

62:54

multinationals and round the world are

62:56

increasing their debt to overcome this

62:59

so they have a very high level of debt

63:00

which means that they're in the position

63:02

where they could easily have

63:04

bankruptcies and indeed falses as any

63:06

rise in the debt servicing cost which at

63:09

the moment arise as a result there are

63:13

any sort of recovery or inflationary

63:15

turns then you would be in a serious

63:18

situation from any company so what I'm

63:21

saying is you've had a supply shot at

63:23

perhaps introduction then you've had a

63:25

demand collapse and spending investment

63:29

now you could have a financial crash

63:31

because many companies go bust or won't

63:34

pay their debts and then the banks will

63:36

be in trouble again I in my book finish

63:39

on this sorry my book the long

63:42

depression I argued that what we're in

63:45

that since 2008 has been the depression

63:47

as opposed to recession you can see

63:49

three points of different sorts of

63:52

recovery after it's like the normal one

63:55

is a v-shape which is what most

63:57

governments are hoping for now and what

64:00

the strategists are hoping for sometimes

64:03

you get a w-shaped goes up the mid types

64:05

is again a 1980s or you get a depression

64:09

it's like a reverse square roots all the

64:11

way around for those you know basic

64:14

arithmetic the square looks like this is

64:17

a reverse sign on it

64:18

and you can see you don't return to

64:20

trade you stand and you never and that's

64:23

happened on three times in my view in

64:25

the history of capitalism the 19th

64:27

century we saw that the Great Depression

64:29

and low returns and showing grows into a

64:32

war began and now in the last ten years

64:34

or something soon it seemed to her about

64:36

two ends when you make a new leg of the

64:38

long depression where that trend growth

64:40

rate which you can see in the dotted

64:42

blue line before 2008 was replaced by a

64:45

new trend growth rate the first name

64:47

long depression the yellow dotted line

64:50

and then with these collapse

64:53

recovery we could end up on that red

64:56

line which is a complete new chip new

64:58

and lower trajectory and lost in between

65:00

the blue dotted line and the red line in

65:03

terms of growth is truly huge when is

65:09

the prospect for world capitalism and of

65:11

course that affects Indonesia there is

65:14

no escape for Indonesia they depend on

65:16

the world in particular and what happens

65:18

there so if world capitalist remains in

65:20

the depression that can only damage the

65:23

ability of Indonesian to grow to meet

65:27

the needs of its huge population already

65:30

the unequal inequality of wealth and

65:33

Incans there

65:34

this will only tend to get worse and the

65:37

lowest majority of the population will

65:39

fail to see any prosperity out of

65:41

Indonesia

65:42

if that's it's a how the situation

65:44

continues that's it for me

65:57

I finished can be your turn now

66:05

oh sorry I thought that Surya will make

66:09

some introduction for so thank you

66:12

Surya and Michael for the presentation

66:14

and I hope that my presentation won't be

66:17

repeat much from all of the you guys

66:21

because yet definitely some of the

66:24

content of my presentation has already

66:26

been saved in both of your percentage

66:28

and so basically what what I want to say

66:31

is more about politics particularly

66:34

about the politics of the capitalist

66:36

class Indonesia in the context of Penda

66:39

me right now so yeah I need to share my

66:47

with my where's my presentation can you

67:02

guys see it I think yeah yeah see you

67:08

need yeah I yeah yeah okay sure okay

67:16

thank you so so basically what happens

67:23

in Indonesia cannot be separated from

67:25

the optical character of Indonesian

67:28

capital state itself so there are two

67:31

main important traits that embedded in

67:37

the Indonesian skipper speed the first

67:40

one is the assertion legacy which

67:43

basically makes the state insulted from

67:47

any popular aspiration and these things

67:52

have been generated nurtured during the

67:56

Suharto orchard so heartless

67:58

authoritarian power and although

68:02

Indonesia successfully transformed

68:07

itself into a den of the speed this kind

68:10

of legacy

68:10

I did not really famous so after so hard

68:17

being tackled the structure the power

68:21

structure that sustained soeharto is

68:24

still there so that's why even we

68:27

already have this kind of more they're

68:31

more or less than the 21 years of

68:33

democratic reform we still have to face

68:37

this concrete material structure of

68:42

authoritarian the so-called Atherton

68:45

legacy in which the power of the state

68:48

being dominated by only merely several

68:52

twelve-hour whether you want to call it

68:54

as a capital space or oligarch yeah you

68:58

can say it as you wish and the second

69:02

one is related to neoliberalism so

69:05

basically after the 98 97 98 crisis the

69:11

very foundation of the economic

69:13

structure Indonesia transformed

69:16

radically which previously only

69:20

controlled by the state do the

69:22

authorizer and politics but then after

69:26

the crisis all of this structure has to

69:31

be transformed into more market friendly

69:37

economic structure so that's why we we

69:41

have this this to this to political

69:45

structure that really interrelated in

69:47

current Indonesia's capital speed and it

69:51

makes so that's why we have really

69:54

so-called ignorant lead in the top of

69:58

the government which basically related

70:01

to this legacy authoritive legacy and

70:04

the second one is we have this kind of

70:07

lack of public infrastructure because of

70:09

this neoliberalism and so that's why

70:14

during the crisis the government only

70:17

provide you can say insufficient

70:22

stimulus in order

70:24

to maintain the economic the economy big

70:30

in media the government provide four

70:34

hundred five trillion rupiah in which if

70:37

you convert it into the US dollar I

70:40

think it's around yet three hundred

70:46

million something like that and

70:49

unfortunately this stimulus is focusing

70:55